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	<Header>
		<Application
			name="SPSS 14.0 for Windows"
			version="14.0.1"/>
	</Header>
	<DataDictionary>
		<DateSpecification
			dateSpecID="1"
			dateSpecDescriptor="Date specification derived from SPSS time-series date variables">
			<Periods>
				<Year
					firstCaseIndex="1950"/>
			</Periods>
		</DateSpecification>
	</DataDictionary>
	<ARIMAModel
		modelName="Model_1"
		modelDescriptor="Strikes_ARIMA"
		variableID="Strikes"
		dateSpecID="1">
		<Transformation
			nonSeasonalDiff="1"/>
		<ConstantTerm>
			<EstimatedParameter>19.3643313909001 82.3884360654531</EstimatedParameter>
		</ConstantTerm>
		<MovingAverage>
			<NonSeasonalFactor>
				<LagTerm
					lag="1">
					<EstimatedParameter>-0.278612064294736 0.212630503476147</EstimatedParameter>
				</LagTerm>
			</NonSeasonalFactor>
		</MovingAverage>
		<ARIMAMLSpState
			periodDeficit="0">
			<ZState>
				<FinalZ>5031</FinalZ>
				<FinalPredictedZ>5879.18536902894</FinalPredictedZ>
			</ZState>
			<NoiseState>
				<FinalNoise>-1062.3643313909</FinalNoise>
				<FinalPredictedNoise>-214.178962361965</FinalPredictedNoise>
			</NoiseState>
			<ThetaRecursionState
				finalIterationNumber="24">
				<FinalThetas>
					<ThetaVec>-0.278612064294736</ThetaVec>
				</FinalThetas>
				<FinalNu>1</FinalNu>
			</ThetaRecursionState>
		</ARIMAMLSpState>
		<EstimationInfo
			periodStartIndex="0"
			periodLength="25"
			degreesOfFreedom="22">
			<Statistic
				type="errVariance">301713.558211476</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="meanSqrErr">302192.264129286</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="rootMeanSqrErr">549.720168930781</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="meanAbsPctErr">9.30592274705898</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="meanAbsErr">405.534133672204</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="maxAbsPctErr">46.9751970390696</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="maxAbsErr">1629.09983331494</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="rSqr">0.614219558837956</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="normBayesIC">12.8836565491755</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="logLikelihood">-184.457590169888</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="akaikeIC">372.915180339776</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="bayesIC">375.271288000472</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="stationaryRSqr">0.0710004306194132</Statistic>
			<LjungBoxStatistic
				k="18"
				degreesOfFreedom="17"
				pValue="0.973775060637878">7.63313961645682</LjungBoxStatistic>
		</EstimationInfo>
	</ARIMAModel>
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