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	<Header>
		<Application
			name="SPSS 15.0 for Windows"
			version="15.0.0"/>
	</Header>
	<DataDictionary/>
	<ARIMAModel
		modelName="Model_1"
		modelDescriptor="y_ARIMA"
		variableID="y">
		<Transformation
			nonSeasonalDiff="1"/>
		<ConstantTerm>
			<EstimatedParameter>-0.55667880183504 1.69306953797671</EstimatedParameter>
		</ConstantTerm>
		<Autoregression>
			<NonSeasonalFactor>
				<LagTerm
					lag="1">
					<EstimatedParameter>-0.575473748754252 0.22685683820251</EstimatedParameter>
				</LagTerm>
			</NonSeasonalFactor>
		</Autoregression>
		<MovingAverage>
			<NonSeasonalFactor>
				<LagTerm
					lag="1">
					<EstimatedParameter>0.619857871047909 0.235495293222705</EstimatedParameter>
				</LagTerm>
			</NonSeasonalFactor>
		</MovingAverage>
		<ARIMAMLSpState
			periodDeficit="0">
			<ZState>
				<FinalZ>-9.15</FinalZ>
				<FinalPredictedZ>-9.73279225192285</FinalPredictedZ>
			</ZState>
			<NoiseState>
				<FinalNoise>-1.45332119816496</FinalNoise>
				<FinalPredictedNoise>-2.03611345008781</FinalPredictedNoise>
			</NoiseState>
			<ThetaRecursionState
				finalIterationNumber="19">
				<FinalThetas>
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				</FinalThetas>
				<FinalNu>1.00000001591992</FinalNu>
			</ThetaRecursionState>
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		<EstimationInfo
			periodStartIndex="0"
			periodLength="20"
			degreesOfFreedom="16">
			<Statistic
				type="errVariance">4.42251605511593</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="meanSqrErr">5.75599164653023</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="rootMeanSqrErr">2.39916478102906</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="meanAbsPctErr">20.0733350682055</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="meanAbsErr">1.73362940498406</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="maxAbsPctErr">119.381541486824</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="maxAbsErr">5.55667880183504</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="rSqr">0.947548029009164</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="normBayesIC">2.2151527555242</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="logLikelihood">-40.1996006840356</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="akaikeIC">86.3992013680712</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="bayesIC">89.2325183055706</Statistic>
			<Statistic
				type="stationaryRSqr">0.573737831824709</Statistic>
			<LjungBoxStatistic
				k="18"
				degreesOfFreedom="16"
				pValue="0.215985726278441">20.094698426162</LjungBoxStatistic>
		</EstimationInfo>
	</ARIMAModel>
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